Afrinvest West Africa Limited has predicted that Nigeria’s rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) requires a 21.95 per cent growth rate at an exchange rate of N1,500 per dollar to achieve the $1 trillion economy target by 2031.
The investment firm made this prediction in its 20th Nigeria Banking Sector Report 2025, titled ‘ACT-BOLD: Beyond a Trillion Dollar Economy’.
Afrinvest explained that at rebased GDP nominal size of N372.8 trillion, Nigeria requires a minimum yearly growth rate of 21.9 per cent to attain $1 trillion economy valuation by 2031.
At the event, which marked Afrinvest’s 30 years of operations, an exchange rate of N1,500/$1 or a much stronger exchange rate at a slower growth rate was predicted to be required to attain the GDP size milestone.
The report pointed out that despite the President Bola Tinubu administration’s confidence that the banking industry would support the $1 trillion economy target realisation, there was a need to address longstanding impediments that constrain broad-based growth potential.
“Without such intermediation, banks would only deliver, at best, uneven and subpar growth across a few services-based sectors, while the overall economy continues to grow at a slow pace,” it added.
The report highlighted the role of monetary policy tightening in achieving subdued inflation rate figures, restoring market confidence and stabilising the forex rate.
According to the report, monetary policy under the Olayemi Cardoso-led Central Bank of Nigeria showed successive hikes in the benchmark rate by a cumulative of 875 basis points to 27.5 per cent between February 2024 and November 2024, and this, alongside other variables, was left unchanged throughout the first half of this year.
It showed that the ongoing recapitalisation of the banking industry had shown that several banks initiated or completed a capital raise to strengthen their buffer.
“As of mid-2025, our estimate suggests that banks have collectively raised over N2.5 trillion through rights issues, public offerings and private placements,” it noted.
Speaking during the unveiling, the Group managing director, Afrinvest West Africa Limited, Dr Ike Chioke, described the company’s 30 years of operations as a journey of resilience, innovation, and leadership meant to shape Nigeria’s financial markets.
He said the 30-year journey unfolded against a backdrop of shifting global and domestic political, macroeconomic and capital markets realities.
He said the Banking Sector Report, first published in 2006, remained a trusted compass for policymakers, investors and financial institutions navigating the changes in Nigeria’s economy.
The chairman, Afrinvest West Africa Limited, Donald Lawson, who was represented by Professor of Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka and co-chair, Nigerian Economic Summit Group National Advisory Council, Osita Ogbu, said that great institutions were not accidents of history but products of vision, courage and the ability to adapt to changing times.
