Asian shares saw a slight increase on Tuesday, while gold continued its remarkable rise as investors assessed the potential for a U.S. government shutdown that could postpone the release of important employment statistics.
The Australian dollar gained further after the central bank decided to maintain its policy interest rates, a move that was widely anticipated. Oil prices dropped amid expectations of increased production from OPEC+, and China’s manufacturing sector contracted for the sixth consecutive month in September. U.S. Vice President JD Vance indicated that the government seemed “on the brink of a shutdown” following minimal progress in budget negotiations between President Donald Trump and Democratic leaders.
A government shutdown would impede the release of crucial employment data scheduled for this week, particularly highlighting the Labor Department’s JOLTS report on job openings for August, which is set to be released later on Tuesday.
“It appears that markets are preparing for the possibility of a shutdown,” stated Ray Attrill, head of FX research at National Australia Bank, during a podcast discussion. “If we know that payroll numbers won’t be available, it will draw more attention to the data we do receive.”
The MSCI index tracking Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose by 0.3%, positioning itself for a monthly gain of 5.3%. Japan’s Nikkei stock index (.N225) increased by 0.1%, recovering from earlier losses.
China’s blue-chip CSI300 Index (.CSI300) climbed 0.2%, marking its fifth consecutive month of gains, the longest streak since October 2017.
The dollar dipped 0.1% to 148.46 yen following a 0.6% decline on Monday. The euro remained stable at $1.1724, while the Australian dollar appreciated by 0.5% against the U.S. dollar, reaching $0.6605.
SHUTDOWN MAY LEAVE FED WITHOUT CRUCIAL DATA
The U.S. JOLTS report is the first of several key indicators expected before the September employment report, which is crucial for the Federal Reserve’s decisions regarding interest rate cuts.
A prolonged government shutdown could leave the Fed without essential economic data when it convenes on October 29.
Analysts predict that the JOLTS report will indicate job openings remained steady at approximately 7.18 million in August.
“The immediate consequence for the markets is that the shutdown could delay the release of certain data, including the vital non-farm payrolls report,” noted Capital.com analyst Kyle Rodda in a recent commentary.
“The primary concern for market participants is the future trajectory of U.S. interest rates, with asset prices being buoyed by the expectation of forthcoming cuts, which could be more substantial than anticipated.”
If no agreement is reached, a U.S. government shutdown would commence on Wednesday, coinciding with the implementation of new U.S. tariffs on heavy trucks, patented medications, and other goods.
The White House announced updated tariffs on furniture and cabinets late Monday, which are scheduled to take effect on October 14.
In terms of Asian economic indicators, China’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 49.8 in September, up from 49.4 in August, yet still below the critical 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction.
This suggests that manufacturers are awaiting additional stimulus to enhance domestic demand, as well as clarity regarding a U.S. trade agreement.
Data from Japan revealed that factory output declined more than anticipated in August.
The Reserve Bank of Australia opted to keep its cash rate steady at 3.60%, citing recent data that indicated inflation might exceed previous forecasts for the third quarter, alongside an uncertain economic outlook.
The prevailing economic and trade uncertainties provided a boost for gold, which reached an unprecedented high of $3,866.99.
Oil prices remained subdued due to expected production increases from OPEC+ and the resumption of oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region. U.S. crude oil prices fell by 0.6% to $63.10 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped 0.7% to $67.53 per barrel.
In European markets, the pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 futures were down 0.09% at 5,525, German DAX futures decreased by 0.05% to 23,893, and FTSE futures fell by 0.11% to 9,350. U.S. stock futures, specifically the S&P 500 e-minis, were down 0.05% at 6,710.
In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin remained relatively stable at $114,289.88, while ether experienced a decline of 0.7%, trading at $4,200.85.
