Revenue receipts of the federal government in 2025 were characterized by shortfalls, leading to a fiscal deficit of N328 billion in the Third Quarter (Q3) of the year.
The 2025 Q3 Budget Implementation Report released by the Budget Office of the Federation (BoF) indicated that there was no truth in claims that the Administration of President Bola Tinubu achieved its annual revenue target by August, of 2025.
According to the report, “Revenue shortfalls persisted in both oil and non-oil receipts. Total FG revenue stood at ₦7.70 trillion and expenditure reached ₦8.03 trillion, resulting in a fiscal deficit of ₦328.57 billion, financed through privatization proceeds and domestic borrowing.”
The Aggregate FGN Revenue of N7.7 trillion in the quarter under review (July – September 2025) represented 75.16% of the prorated target, the report said.
The BoF put Aggregate Expenditure (including Government Owned Enterprises (GOEs and Project-tied Loans) at ₦8.03 trillion, about 58.4 percent of the prorated ₦13.75 trillion.
It reported a below-target performance of the oil sector as a key factor for the shortfall in revenue.
According to the report, “The price of crude oil in the international market averaged $68.50 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025, which is $5.50 per barrel (7.43 percent) and $6.50 per barrel (8.67 percent) lower than $74,00 per barrel in the second quarter and the $75.00 per barrel benchmark price for 2025 budget.
“The nation in the third quarter of 2025 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.64 million barrels, lower than the second quarter of 2025 production volume of 1.68 mbpd and the production benchmark of 2.12mbpd
“Gross Oil Revenue stood at ₦4.87 trillion in the third quarter, representing a shortfall of ₦7.88 trillion (61.80 percent) from the ₦12.76 trillion prorated quarterly gross oil revenue in the 2025 Budget.”
However, the gross non-oil revenue of ₦6.52 trillion received in the quarter under review signified a marginal increase of ₦468.58 billion (7.74 percent) above the quarterly estimate of ₦6.05 trillion.
The report showed, “The net distributable revenue for the three tiers of government after cost deductions stood at ₦10.29 trillion in the third quarter of 2025, representing a shortfall of ₦6.57 trillion (38.98 percent).”
The Q3 report highlighted the challenge posed by high debt servicing obligations of the federal government, as debt servicing took N3.41 trillion, way higher than non-debt recurrent expenditure of N2.66 trillion.
It said, “A total of ₦2.66 trillion was spent on non-debt recurrent expenditure in the third quarter of 2025. This represents a decrease of ₦739.01 billion (21.75 percent) from the quarterly estimate of ₦3.40 trillion
“Total Debt Service in the third quarter of 2025 stood at ₦3.41 trillion, indicating a decrease of ₦171.90 billion (4.80 percent) below the ₦3.58 trillion projected for the quarter.
“The sum of ₦1.80 trillion was projected for domestic debt servicing during the period under review. The amount used for domestic debt servicing was however ₦111.07 billion or 6.18 percent above the projection for the quarter.
“External debt service was ₦1.69 trillion in the quarter, ₦211.72 billion or 12.55 percent below the prorate projected figure for the period.”
The report’s upticks included Aggregate GDP at basic price which rose to ₦113.59 trillion in nominal terms in the quarter under review when compared Year-on-Year with the third quarter of 2024, which recorded an aggregate GDP of ₦96.16 trillion.
